Preview

Общая реаниматология

Расширенный поиск

Факторы риска и методы прогнозирования клинического исхода COVID-19 (обзор)

https://doi.org/10.15360/1813-9779-2022-1-31-38

Полный текст:

Аннотация

Одним из эффективных инструментов изучения COVID-19 является исследование больших популяций пациентов и выделение факторов, влияющих на течение и прогноз, с помощью различных методов статистического анализа и математического компьютерного моделирования. Применение прогностических шкал, разработанных на основании сопоставления динамики клинических и лабораторных показателей с морфологическими данными, может помочь в своевременной оценке возможных вариантов течения заболевания и выделении больных группы высокого риска неблагоприятного исхода.

Цель обзора. Оценить факторы риска тяжелого течения и неблагоприятного исхода COVID-19, существующие инструменты прогнозирования течения и исхода новой короновирусной инфекции. Поиск источников осуществляли в базах данных PubMed, Medline, Google Scholar. Данный литературный обзор наряду с краткими данными об этиологии, патогенезе COVID-19 и об известных эпидемиологических, клинических и лабораторных факторах, влияющих на ее течение, содержит информацию о существующих инструментах оценки прогноза течения и исхода заболевания.

Заключение. Необходима разработка прогностических моделей, созданных под конкретные условия с возможностью постоянного мониторинга ситуации и внесения корректировок при необходимости. Обнаружение новых более чувствительных на ранних этапах заболевания маркеров и разработка на их основе инструментов оценки прогноза могло бы значительно улучшить исходы COVID-19.

Об авторах

С. В. Сокологорский
Первый МГМУ им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России (Сеченовский Университет)
Россия

119991, г. Москва, ул. Трубецкая, д.8, стр. 2



А. М. Овечкин
Первый МГМУ им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России (Сеченовский Университет)
Россия

119991, г. Москва, ул. Трубецкая, д.8, стр. 2



И. В. Хапов
Первый МГМУ им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России (Сеченовский Университет)
Россия

119991, г. Москва, ул. Трубецкая, д.8, стр. 2



М. Е. Политов
Первый МГМУ им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России (Сеченовский Университет)
Россия

119991, г. Москва, ул. Трубецкая, д.8, стр. 2



Е. Л. Буланова
Первый МГМУ им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России (Сеченовский Университет)
Россия

119991, г. Москва, ул. Трубецкая, д.8, стр. 2



Список литературы

1. WHO 2021.02. COVID-19 strategic preparedness and response plan. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/strategies-and-plans.

2. Maggi E., Canonica G.W., Moretta L. COVID-19: Unanswered questions on immune response and pathogenesis. J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2020; 146 (1): 18–22. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaci.2020.05.001. PMID: 32389590.

3. Siripanthong B., Nazarian S., Muser D., Deo R., Santangeli P., Khanji M.Y., Cooper L.T. Jr, Chahal C.A.A. Recognizing COVID-19-related myocarditis: The possible pathophysiology and proposed guideline for diagnosis and management. Heart Rhythm. 2020; 17 (9): 1463–1471. DOI: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2020.05.001. PMID: 32387246.

4. Bearse M., Hung Y.P., Krauson A.J., Bonanno L., Boyraz B., Harris C.K., Helland T.L., Hilburn C.F., Hutchison B., Jobbagy S., Marshall M.S., Shepherd D.J., Villalba J.A., Delfino I., Mendez-Pena J., Chebib I., Newton-Cheh C., Stone J.R. Factors associated with myocardial SARS-CoV-2 infection, myocarditis, and cardiac inflammation in patients with COVID-19. Mod Pathol. 2021; 34 (7): 1345–1357. DOI: 10.1038/s41379-021-00790-1. PMID: 33727695.

5. Sala S., Peretto G., Gramegna M., Palmisano A., Villatore A., Vignale D., De Cobelli F., Tresoldi M., Cappelletti A.M., Basso C., Godino C., Esposito A. Acute myocarditis presenting as a reverse Tako-Tsubo syndrome in a patient with SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection. Eur Heart J. 2020; 41 (19): 1861-1862. DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa286. PMID: 32267502; PMCID: PMC7184339.

6. Torres Acosta M.A., Singer B.D. Pathogenesis of COVID-19-induced ARDS: implications for an ageing population. Eur Respir J. 2020; 56 (3): 2002049. DOI: 10.1183/13993003.02049-2020. PMID: 32747391.

7. Cichoż-Lach H., Michalak A. Liver injury in the era of COVID-19. World J Gastroenterol. 2021; 27 (5): 377–390. DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i5.377. PMID: 33584070.

8. Alqahtani S.A., Schattenberg J.M. Liver injury in COVID-19: The current evidence. United European Gastroenterol J. 2020; 8 (5): 509–519. DOI: 10.1177/2050640620924157. PMID: 32450787.

9. Lizardo-Thiebaud M.J., Cervantes-Alvarez E., Limon-de la Rosa N., Tejeda-Dominguez F., Palacios-Jimenez M., Méndez-Guerrero O., Delaye-Martinez M., Rodriguez-Alvarez F., Romero-Morales B., Liu W.H., Huang C.A., Kershenobich D., Navarro-Alvarez N. Direct or Collateral Liver Damage in SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients. Semin Liver Dis. 2020; 40 (3): 321–330. DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1715108. Epub 2020 Sep 4. PMID: 32886936.

10. Gagliardi I., Patella G., Michael A., Serra R., Provenzano M., Andreucci M. COVID-19 and the Kidney: From Epidemiology to Clinical Practice. J Clin Med. 2020; 9 (8): 2506. DOI: 10.3390/jcm9082506. PMID: 32759645.

11. Ng J.H., Bijol V., Sparks M.A., Sise M.E., Izzedine H., Jhaveri K.D. Pathophysiology and Pathology of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients WithCOVID-19. Adv Chronic Kidney Dis. 2020; 27 (5): 365–376. DOI: 10.1053/j.ackd.2020.09.003. Epub 2020 Oct 20. PMID: 33308501.

12. Iadecola C., Anrather J., Kamel H. Effects of COVID-19 on the Nervous System. Cell. 2020; 183 (1): 16–27.e1. DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2020.08.028. Epub 2020 Aug 19. PMID: 32882182.

13. Sharifian-Dorche M., Huot P., Osherov M., Wen D., Saveriano A., Giacomini P.S., Antel J.P., Mowla A. Neurological complications of coronavirus infection; a comparative review and lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. J Neurol Sci. 2020 Oct 15; 417: 117085. DOI: 10.1016/j.jns.2020.117085. Epub 2020 Aug 7. PMID: 32871412.

14. Catalá Gonzalo A., Galván Casas C. COVID-19 and the Skin. Actas Dermosifiliogr. 2020; 111 (6): 447–449. DOI: 10.1016/j.ad.2020.04.007. Epub 2020 May 13. PMID: 32401723.

15. Novak N., Peng W., Naegeli M.C., Galvan C., Kolm-Djamei I., Brüggen C., Cabanillas B., Schmid-Grendelmeier P., Catala A. SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, skin and immunology — What do we know so far? Allergy. 2021; 76 (3): 698–713. DOI: 10.1111/all.14498. Epub 2020 Aug 12. PMID: 32658359.

16. Gisondi P., PIaserico S., Bordin C., Alaibac M., Girolomoni G., Naldi L. Cutaneous manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a clinical update. J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol. 2020; 34 (11): 2499–2504. DOI: 10.1111/jdv.16774. Epub 2020 Jul 20. PMID: 32585074.

17. Shankar-Hari M., Fan E., Ferguson N.D. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) phenotyping. Intensive Care Med. 2019; 45 (4): 516–519. DOI: 10.1007/s00134-018-5480-6. Epub 2018 Dec 5. PMID: 30519902.

18. Calfee C.S., Delucchi K.L., Sinha P., Matthay M.A., Hackett J., Shankar-Hari M., McDowell C., Laffey J.G., O'Kane C.M., McAuley D.F.; Irish Critical Care Trials Group. Acute respiratory distress syndrome subphenotypes and differential response to simvastatin: secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial. Lancet Respir Med. 2018; 6 (9): 691–698. DOI: 10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30177-2. Epub 2018 Aug 2. PMID: 30078618.

19. Lin S.H., Zhao Y.S., Zhou D.X., Zhou F.C., Xu F. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): cytokine storms, hyper-inflammatory phenotypes, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Genes Dis. 2020; 7 (4): 520–527. DOI: 10.1016/j.gendis.2020.06.009. Epub 2020 Jun 29. PMID: 32837983.

20. Sinha P., Calfee C.S., Cherian S., Brealey D., Cutler S., King C., Killick C., Richards O., Cheema Y., Bailey C., Reddy K., Delucchi K.L., Shankar-Hari M., Gordon A.C., Shyamsundar M., O'Kane C.M., McAuley D.F., Szakmany T. Prevalence of phenotypes of acute respiratory distress syndrome in critically ill patients with COVID-19: a prospective observational study. Lancet Respir Med. 2020; 8 (12): 1209–1218. DOI: 10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30366-0. Epub 2020 Aug 27. PMID: 32861275.

21. Calabrese F., Pezzuto F., Fortarezza F., Hofman P., Kern I., Panizo A., von der Thüsen J., Timofeev S., Gorkiewicz G., Lunardi F. Pulmonary pathology and COVID-19: lessons from autopsy. The experience of European Pulmonary Pathologists. Virchows Arch. 2020; 477 (3): 359–372. DOI: 10.1007/s00428-020-02886-6. Epub 2020 Jul 9. PMID: 32642842.

22. Li S., Jiang L., Li X., Lin F., Wang Y., Li B., Jiang T., An W., Liu S., Liu H., Xu P., Zhao L., Zhang L., Mu J., Wang H., Kang J., Li Y., Huang L., Zhu C., Zhao S., Lu J., Ji J., Zhao J. Clinical and pathological investigation of patients with severe COVID-19. JCI Insight. 2020; 5 (12): e138070. DOI: 10.1172/jci.insight.138070. PMID: 32427582.

23. Zhou F., Yu T., Du R., Fan G., Liu Y., Liu Z., Xiang J., Wang Y., Song B., Gu X., Guan L., Wei Y., Li H., Wu X., Xu J., Tu S., Zhang Y., Chen H., Cao B. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet. 2020; 395 (10229): 1054–1062. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3. Epub 2020 Mar 11. Erratum in: Lancet. 2020; 395 (10229): 1038. Erratum in: Lancet. 2020 Mar 28; 395 (10229): 1038. PMID: 32171076.

24. Grasselli G., Greco M., Zanella A., Albano G., Antonelli M., Bellani G., Bonanomi E., Cabrini L., Carlesso E., Castelli G., Cattaneo S., Cereda D., Colombo S., Coluccello A., Crescini G., Forastieri Molinari A., Foti G., Fumagalli R., Iotti G.A., Langer T., Latronico N., Lorini F.L., Mojoli F., Natalini G., Pessina C.M., Ranieri V.M., Rech R., Scudeller L., Rosano A., Storti E., Thompson B.T., Tirani M., Villani P.G., Pesenti A, Cecconi M.; COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network. Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy. JAMA Intern Med. 2020; 180 (10): 1345–1355. DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3539. PMID: 32667669.

25. Giannakoulis V.G., Papoutsi E., Siempos I.I. Effect of Cancer on Clinical Outcomes of Patients With COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis of Patient Data. JCO Glob Oncol. 2020; 6: 799–808. DOI: 10.1200/GO.20.00225. PMID: 32511066.

26. Beaney T., Salman D., Samee T., Mak V. Assessment and management of adults with asthma during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ. 2020; 369: m2092. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m2092. PMID: 32513811.

27. Huang I., Lim M.A., Pranata R. Diabetes mellitus is associated with increased mortality and severity of disease in COVID-19 pneumonia — A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression. Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020; 14 (4): 395–403. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.04.018. Epub 2020 Apr 17. PMID: 32334395.

28. Hussain A., Mahawar K., Xia Z., Yang W., El-Hasani S. Obesity and mortality of COVID-19. Meta-analysis. Obes Res Clin Pract. 2020; 14 (4): 295–300. DOI: 10.1016/j.orcp.2020.07.002. Epub 2020 Jul 9. Retraction in: Obes Res Clin Pract. 2021 Jan-Feb; 15 (1): 100. PMID: 32660813.

29. Lee J.Y., Kim H.A., Huh K., Hyun M., Rhee J.Y., Jang S., Kim J.Y., Peck K.R., Chang H.H. Risk Factors for Mortality and Respiratory Support in Elderly Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 in Korea. J Korean Med Sci. 2020; 35 (23): e223. DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e223. PMID: 32537957.

30. Shekerdemian L.S., Mahmood N.R., Wolfe K.K., Riggs B.J., Ross C.E., McKiernan C.A., Heidemann S.M., Kleinman L.C., Sen A.I., Hall M.W., Priestley M.A., McGuire J.K., Boukas K., Sharron M.P., Burns J.P.; International COVID-19 PICU Collaborative. Characteristics and Outcomes of Children With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infection Admitted to US and Canadian Pediatric Intensive Care Units. JAMA Pediatr. 2020; 174 (9): 868–873. DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.1948. PMID: 32392288.

31. Petrilli C.M., Jones S.A., Yang J., Rajagopalan H., O'Donnell L., Chernyak Y., Tobin K.A., Cerfolio R.J., Francois F., Horwitz L.I. Factors associated with hospital admission and critical illness among 5279 people with coronavirus disease 2019 in New York City: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2020; 369: m1966. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1966. PMID: 32444366.

32. Zhao Z., Chen A., Hou W., Graham J.M., Li H., Richman P.S., Thode H.C., Singer A.J., Duong T.Q. Prediction model and risk scores of ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. PLoS One. 2020; 15 (7): e0236618. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236618. PMID: 32730358.

33. Patel U., Malik P., Usman M.S., Mehta D., Sharma A., Malik F.A., Khan N., Siddiqi T.J., Ahmed J., Patel A., Sacks H. Age-Adjusted Risk Factors Associated with Mortality and Mechanical Ventilation Utilization Amongst COVID-19 Hospitalizations-a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. SN Compr Clin Med. 2020; 29: 1–10. DOI: 10.1007/s42399-020-00476-w. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 32904541.

34. Gao Y.D., Ding M., Dong X., Zhang J.J., Kursat Azkur A., Azkur D., Gan H., Sun Y.L., Fu W., Li W., Liang H.L., Cao Y.Y., Yan Q., Cao C., Gao H.Y., Brüggen M.C., van de Veen W., Sokolowska M., Akdis M., Akdis C.A. Risk factors for severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients: A review. Allergy. 2021; 76 (2): 428–455. DOI: 10.1111/all.14657. Epub 2020 Dec 4. PMID: 33185910.

35. Jordan R.E., Adab P., Cheng K.K. Covid-19: risk factors for severe disease and death. BMJ. 2020; 368: m1198. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1198. PMID: 32217618.

36. Parohan M., Yaghoubi S., Seraji A., Javanbakht M.H., Sarraf P., Djalali M. Risk factors for mortality in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. Aging Male. 2020; 23 (5): 1416–1424. DOI: 10.1080/13685538.2020.1774748. Epub 2020 Jun 8. PMID: 32508193.

37. Indini A., Rijavec E., Ghidini M., Cattaneo M., Grossi F. Developing a risk assessment score for patients with cancer during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Eur J Cancer. 2020; 135: 47–50. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2020.05.017. Epub 2020 May 31. PMID: 32534244; PMCID: PMC7261437.

38. Price-Haywood E.G., Burton J., Fort D., Seoane L. Hospitalization and Mortality among Black Patients and White Patients with Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020; 382 (26): 2534–2543. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMsa2011686. Epub 2020 May 27. PMID: 32459916.

39. Imam Z., Odish F., Gill I., O'Connor D., Armstrong J., Vanood A., Ibironke O., Hanna A., Ranski A., Halalau A. Older age and comorbidity are independent mortality predictors in a large cohort of 1305 COVID-19 patients in Michigan, United States. J Intern Med. 2020; 288 (4): 469–476. DOI: 10.1111/joim.13119. Epub 2020 Jun 22. PMID: 32498135.

40. Varol Y., Hakoglu B., Kadri Cirak A., Polat G., Komurcuoglu B., Akkol B., Atasoy C., Bayramic E., Balci G., Ataman S., Ermin S., Yalniz E.; COVID Study Group. The impact of charlson comorbidity index on mortality from SARS-CoV-2 virus infection and A novel COVID-19 mortality index: CoLACD. Int J Clin Pract. 2021; 75 (4): e13858. DOI: 10.1111/ijcp.13858. Epub 2020 Dec 7. PMID: 33237615.

41. Docherty A.B., Harrison E.M., Green C.A., Hardwick H.E., Pius R., Norman L., Holden K.A., Read J.M., Dondelinger F., Carson G., Merson L., Lee J., Plotkin D., Sigfrid L., Halpin S., Jackson C., Gamble C., Horby P.W., Nguyen-Van-Tam J.S., Ho A., Russell C.D., Dunning J., Openshaw P.J., Baillie J.K., Semple M.G.; ISARIC4C investigators. Features of 20 133 UK patients in hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: prospective observational cohort study. BMJ. 2020; 369: m1985. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1985. PMID: 32444460.

42. Chen L., Yu J., He W., Chen L., Yuan G., Dong F., Chen W., Cao Y., Yang J., Cai L., Wu D., Ran Q., Li L., Liu Q., Ren W., Gao F., Wang H., Chen Z., Gale R.P., Li Q., Hu Y. Risk factors for death in 1859 subjects with COVID-19. Leukemia. 2020; 34 (8): 2173–2183. DOI: 10.1038/s41375-020-0911-0. Epub 2020 Jun 16. PMID: 32546725.

43. Sousa G.J.B., Garces T.S., Cestari V.R.F., Florêncio R.S., Moreira T.M.M., Pereira M.L.D. Mortality and survival of COVID-19. Epidemiol Infect. 2020; 148: e123. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268820001405. PMID: 32580809.

44. Munblit D., Nekliudov N.A., Bugaeva P., Blyuss O., Kislova M., Listovskaya E., Gamirova A., Shikhaleva A., Belyaev V., Timashev P., Warner J.O., Comberiati P., Apfelbacher C., Bezrukov E., Politov M.E., Yavorovskiy A., Bulanova E., Tsareva N., Avdeev S., Kapustina V.A., Pigolkin Y.I., Dankwa E.A., Kartsonaki C., Pritchard M.G., Victor F.,Svistunov A.A., Butnaru D., Glybochko P. StopCOVID cohort: An observational study of 3,480 patients admitted to the Sechenov University hospital network in Moscow city for suspected COVID-19 infection. Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Oct 9: ciaa1535. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1535. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33035307.

45. Romero Starke K., Petereit-Haack G., Schubert M., Kämpf D., Schliebner A., Hegewald J., Seidler A. The Age-Related Risk of Severe Outcomes Due to COVID-19 Infection: A Rapid Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020; 17 (16): 5974. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165974. PMID: 32824596.

46. Büttner L., Aigner A., Fleckenstein F.N., Hamper C.M., Jonczyk M., Hamm B., Scholz O., Böning G. Diagnostic Value of Initial Chest CT Findings for the Need of ICU Treatment/Intubation in Patients with COVID-19. Diagnostics (Basel). 2020; 10 (11): 929. DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics10110929. PMID: 33182695.

47. Sabri A., Davarpanah A.H., Mahdavi A., Abrishami A., Khazaei M., Heydari S., Asgari R., Nekooghadam S.M., Dobranowski J., Taheri M.S. Novel coronavirus disease 2019: predicting prognosis with a computed tomography-based disease severity score and clinical laboratory data. Pol Arch Intern Med. 2020; 130 (7–8): 629–634. DOI: 10.20452/pamw.15422. Epub 2020 Jun 5. PMID: 32500700.

48. Zhou Y., Yang Q., Chi J., Dong B., Lv W., Shen L., Wang Y. Comorbidities and the risk of severe or fatal outcomes associated with coronavirus disease 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Infect Dis. 2020; 99: 47–56. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.029. Epub 2020 Jul 25. PMID: 32721533.

49. Elshazli R.M., Toraih E.A., Elgaml A., El-Mowafy M., El-Mesery M., Amin M.N., Hussein M.H., Killackey M.T., Fawzy M.S., Kandil E. Diagnostic and prognostic value of hematological and immunological markers in COVID-19 infection: A meta-analysis of 6320 patients. PLoS One. 2020; 15 (8): e0238160. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone. 0238160. PMID: 32822430.

50. Wool G.D., Miller J.L. The Impact of COVID-19 Disease on Platelets and Coagulation. Pathobiology. 2021; 88 (1): 15–27. DOI: 10.1159/000512007. Epub 2020 Oct 13. PMID: 33049751.

51. Tan C., Huang Y., Shi F., Tan K., Ma Q., Chen Y., Jiang X., Li X. C-reactive protein correlates with computed tomographic findings and predicts severe COVID-19 early. J Med Virol. 2020; 92 (7): 856–862. DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25871. Epub 2020 Apr 25. PMID: 32281668.

52. Zhang J.J.Y., Lee K.S., Ang L.W., Leo Y.S., Young B.E. Risk Factors for Severe Disease and Efficacy of Treatment in Patients Infected With COVID-19: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression Analysis. Clin Infect Dis. 2020; 71 (16): 2199–2206. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa576. PMID: 32407459.

53. Henry B.M., de Oliveira M.H.S., Benoit S., Plebani M., Lippi G. Hematologic, biochemical and immune biomarker abnormalities associated with severe illness and mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a meta-analysis. Clin Chem Lab Med. 2020; 58 (7): 1021–1028. DOI: 10.1515/cclm-2020-0369. PMID: 32286245.

54. Petrilli C.M., Jones S.A., Yang J., Rajagopalan H., O'Donnell L., Chernyak Y., Tobin K.A., Cerfolio R.J., Francois F., Horwitz L.I. Factors associated with hospital admission and critical illness among 5279 people with coronavirus disease 2019 in New York City: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2020; 369: m1966. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1966. PMID: 32444366.

55. Rodriguez-Nava G., Yanez-Bello M.A., Trelles-Garcia D.P., Chung C.W., Friedman H.J., Hines D.W. Performance of the quick COVID-19 severity index and the Brescia-COVID respiratory severity scale in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a community hospital setting. Int J Infect Dis. 2021; 102: 571–576. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.003. Epub 2020 Nov 9. PMID: 33181332.

56. Hernandez-Romieu A.C., Adelman M.W., Hockstein M.A., Robichaux C.J., Edwards J.A., Fazio J.C., Blum J.M., Jabaley C.S., Caridi-Scheible M., Martin G.S., Murphy D.J., Auld S.C.; Emory COVID-19 Quality and Clinical Research Collaborative. Timing of Intubation and Mortality Among Critically Ill Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients: A Single-Center Cohort Study. Crit Care Med. 2020; 48 (11): e1045–e1053. DOI: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000004600. PMID: 32804790.

57. Gattinoni L., Chiumello D., Caironi P., Busana M., Romitti F., Brazzi L., Camporota L. COVID-19 pneumonia: different respiratory treatments for different phenotypes? Intensive Care Med. 2020; 46 (6): 1099–1102. DOI: 10.1007/s00134-020-06033-2. Epub 2020 Apr 14. PMID: 32291463.

58. Robba C., Battaglini D., Ball L., Patroniti N., Loconte M., Brunetti I., Vena A., Giacobbe D.R., Bassetti M., Rocco P.R.M., Pelosi P. Distinct phenotypes require distinct respiratory management strategies in severe COVID-19. Respir Physiol Neurobiol. 2020; 279: 103455. DOI: 10.1016/j.resp.2020.103455. Epub 2020 May 11. PMID: 32437877.

59. Walkey A.J., Del Sorbo L., Hodgson C.L., Adhikari N.K.J., Wunsch H., Meade M.O., Uleryk E., Hess D., Talmor D.S., Thompson B.T., Brower R.G., Fan E. Higher PEEP versus Lower PEEP Strategies for Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Ann Am Thorac Soc. 2017; 14 (Supplement_4): S297–S303. DOI: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201704-338OT. PMID: 29043834.

60. Nieman G.F., Satalin J., Andrews P., Aiash H., Habashi N.M., Gatto L.A. Personalizing mechanical ventilation according to physiologic parameters to stabilize alveoli and minimize ventilator induced lung injury (VILI). Intensive Care Med Exp. 2017; 5 (1): 8. DOI: 10.1186/s40635-017-0121-x. Epub 2017 Feb 2. PMID: 28150228; PMCID: PMC5289131.

61. Grasselli G., Greco M., Zanella A., Albano G., Antonelli M., Bellani G., Bonanomi E., Cabrini L., Carlesso E., Castelli G., Cattaneo S., Cereda D., Colombo S., Coluccello A., Crescini G., Forastieri Molinari A., Foti G., Fumagalli R., Iotti G.A., Langer T., Latronico N., Lorini F.L., Mojoli F., Natalini G., Pessina C.M., Ranieri V.M., Rech R., Scudeller L., Rosano A., Storti E., Thompson B.T., Tirani M., Villani P.G., Pesenti A., Cecconi M.; COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network. Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy. JAMA Intern Med. 2020; 180 (10): 1345–1355. DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3539. PMID: 32667669.

62. McElvaney O.J., McEvoy N.L., McElvaney O.F., Carroll T.P., Murphy M.P., Dunlea D.M., Ní Choileáin O., Clarke J., O'Connor E., Hogan G., Ryan D., Sulaiman I., Gunaratnam C., Branagan P., O'Brien M.E., Morgan R.K., Costello R.W., Hurley K., Walsh S., de Barra E., McNally C., McConkey S., Boland F., Galvin S., Kiernan F., O'Rourke J., Dwyer R., Power M., Geoghegan P., Larkin C., O'Leary R.A., Freeman J., Gaffney A., Marsh B., Curley G.F., McElvaney N.G. Characterization of the Inflammatory Response to Severe COVID-19 Illness. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2020; 202 (6): 812–821. DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202005-1583OC. PMID: 32584597.

63. Goshua G., Pine A.B., Meizlish M.L., Chang C.H., Zhang H., Bahel P., Baluha A., Bar N., Bona R.D., Burns A.J., Dela Cruz C.S., Dumont A., Halene S., Hwa J., Koff J., Menninger H., Neparidze N., Price C., Siner J.M., Tormey C., Rinder H.M., Chun H.J., Lee A.I. Endotheliopathy in COVID-19-associated coagulopathy: evidence from a single-centre, cross-sectional study. Lancet Haematol. 2020; 7 (8): e575–e582. DOI: 10.1016/S2352-3026(20)30216-7. Epub 2020 Jun 30. PMID: 32619411.

64. Steinberg E., Balakrishna A., Habboushe J., Shawl A., Lee J. Calculated decisions: COVID-19 calculators during extreme resource-limited situations. Emerg Med Pract. 2020; 22 (4 Suppl): CD1-CD5. PMID: 32259419.

65. García Clemente M.M., Herrero Huertas J., Fernández Fernández A., De La Escosura Muñoz C., Enríquez Rodríguez A.I., Pérez Martínez L., Gómez Mañas S., Iscar Urrutia M., López González F.J., Madrid Carbajal C.J., Bedate Díaz P., Arias Guillén M., Bailón Cuadrado C., Hermida Valverde T. Assessment of risk scores in COVID-19. Int J Clin Pract. 2021; 75 (12): e13705. DOI: 10.1111/ijcp.13705. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 32931634.

66. Labenz C., Kremer W.M., Schattenberg J.M., Wörns M.A., Toenges G., Weinmann A., Galle P.R., Sprinzl M.F. Clinical Frailty Scale for risk stratification in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. J Investig Med. 2020; 68 (6): 1199–1202. DOI: 10.1136/jim-2020-001410. Epub 2020 Jul 7. PMID: 32641351.

67. Jang J.G., Hur J., Hong K.S., Lee W., Ahn J.H. Prognostic Accuracy of the SIRS, qSOFA, and NEWS for Early Detection of Clinical Deterioration in SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients. J Korean Med Sci. 2020; 35 (25): e234. DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e234. PMID: 32597046.

68. Kostakis I., Smith G.B., Prytherch D., Meredith P., Price C., Chauhan A.; Portsmouth Academic ConsortIum For Investigating COVID-19 (PACIFIC- 19). The performance of the National Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score 2 in hospitalised patients infected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Resuscitation. 2021; 159: 150–157. DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2020.10.039. Epub 2020 Nov 8. PMID: 33176170.

69. Knight S.R., Ho A., Pius R., Buchan I., Carson G., Drake T.M., Dunning J., Fairfield C.J., Gamble C., Green C.A., Gupta R., Halpin S., Hardwick H.E., Holden K.A., Horby P.W., Jackson C., Mclean K.A., Merson L., Nguyen-Van-Tam J.S., Norman L., Noursadeghi M., Olliaro P.L., Pritchard M.G., Russell C.D., Shaw C.A., Sheikh A., Solomon T., Sudlow C., Swann O.V., Turtle L.C., Openshaw P.J., Baillie J.K., Semple M.G., Docherty A.B., Harrison E.M.; ISARIC4C investigators. Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score. BMJ. 2020; 370: m3339. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3339. Erratum in: BMJ. 2020 Nov 13; 371: m4334. PMID: 32907855.

70. Liang W., Liang H., Ou L., Chen B., Chen A., Li C., Li Y., Guan W., Sang L., Lu J., Xu Y., Chen G., Guo H., Guo J., Chen Z., Zhao Y., Li S., Zhang N., Zhong N., He J.; China Medical Treatment Expert Group for COVID-19. Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk Score to Predict the Occurrence of Critical Illness in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19. JAMA Intern Med. 2020; 180 (8): 1081–1089. DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.2033. PMID: 32396163.

71. Covino M., De Matteis G., Burzo M.L., Russo A., Forte E., Carnicelli A., Piccioni A., Simeoni B., Gasbarrini A., Franceschi F., Sandroni C.; GEMELLI AGAINST COVID-19 Group. Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Older Patients with Specifically Developed Scores. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2021; 69 (1): 37–43. DOI: 10.1111/jgs.16956. Epub 2020 Nov 30. PMID: 33197278.

72. Yuan Y., Sun C., Tang X., Cheng C., Mombaerts L., Wang M., Hu T., Sun C., Guo Y., Li X., Xu H., Ren T., Xiao Y., Xiao Y., Zhu H., Wu H., Li K., Chen C., Liu Y., Liang Z., Cao Z., Zhang H.T., Ch Paschaldis I., Liu Q., Goncalves J., Zhong Q., Yan L. Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China. Engineering (Beijing). 2020 Nov 28. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.10.013. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33282444.

73. Shang Y., Liu T., Wei Y., Li J., Shao L., Liu M., Zhang Y., Zhao Z., Xu H., Peng Z., Zhou F., Wang X. Scoring systems for predicting mortality for severe patients with COVID-19. EClinicalMedicine. 2020; 24: 100426. DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100426. PMID: 32766541.

74. Vaid A., Somani S., Russak A.J., De Freitas J.K., Chaudhry F.F., Paranjpe I., Johnson K.W., Lee S.J, Miotto R., Richter F., Zhao S., Beckmann N.D., Naik N., Kia A., Timsina P., Lala A, Paranjpe M., Golden E., Danieletto M., Singh M., Meyer D., O'Reilly P.F., Huckins L., Kovatch P., Finkelstein J., Freeman R.M., Argulian E., Kasarskis A., Percha B., Aberg J.A., Bagiella E., Horowitz C.R., Murphy B., Nestler E.J., Schadt E.E., Cho J.H., Cordon-Cardo C., Fuster V., Charney D.S., Reich D.L., Bottinger E.P, Levin M.A., Narula J., Fayad Z.A., Just A.C., Charney A.W., Nadkarni G.N., Glicksberg B.S. Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 in New York City: Model Development and Validation. J Med Internet Res. 2020; 22 (11): e24018. DOI: 10.2196/24018. PMID: 33027032.

75. Wu G., Yang P., Xie Y., Woodruff H.C., Rao X., Guiot J., Frix A.N., Louis R., Moutschen M., Li J., Li J., Yan C., Du D., Zhao S., Ding Y., Liu B., Sun W., Albarello F., D'Abramo A., Schininà V., Nicastri E., Occhipinti M., Barisione G., Barisione E., Halilaj I., Lovinfosse P., Wang X., Wu J., Lambin P. Development of a clinical decision support system for severity risk prediction and triage of COVID-19 patients at hospital admission: an international multicentre study. Eur Respir J. 2020; 56 (2): 2001104. DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01104-2020. PMID: 32616597.

76. Hajifathalian K., Sharaiha R.Z., Kumar S., Krisko T., Skaf D., Ang B., Redd W.D., Zhou J.C., Hathorn K.E., McCarty T.R., Bazarbashi A.N., Njie C., Wong D., Shen L., Sholle E., Cohen D.E., Brown R.S. Jr, Chan W.W., Fortune B.E. Development and external validation of a prediction risk model for short-term mortality among hospitalized U.S. COVID-19 patients: A proposal for the COVID-AID risk tool. PLoS One. 2020; 15 (9): e0239536. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239536. PMID: 32997700.

77. Gong J., Ou J., Qiu X., Jie Y., Chen Y., Yuan L., Cao J., Tan M., Xu W., Zheng F., Shi Y., Hu B. A Tool for Early Prediction of Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Multicenter Study Using the Risk Nomogram in Wuhan and Guangdong, China. Clin Infect Dis. 2020; 71 (15): 833-840. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa443. PMID: 32296824.

78. Haimovich A.D., Ravindra N.G., Stoytchev S., Young H.P., Wilson F.P., van Dijk D., Schulz W.L., Taylor R.A. Development and Validation of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index: A Prognostic Tool for Early Clinical Decompensation. Ann Emerg Med. 2020; 76 (4): 442–453. DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2020.07.022. Epub 2020 Jul 21. PMID: 33012378.

79. Zhang C., Qin L., Li K., Wang Q., Zhao Y., Xu B., Liang L, Dai Y, Feng Y, Sun J, Li X, Hu Z, Xiang H, Dong T, Jin R, Zhang Y. A Novel Scoring System for Prediction of Disease Severity in COVID-19. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2020; 10: 318. DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2020.00318. PMID: 32582575.

80. Futoma J., Simons M., Panch T., Doshi-Velez F., Celi L.A. The myth of generalisability in clinical research and machine learning in health care. Lancet Digit Health. 2020; 2 (9): e489-e492. DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30186-2. Epub 2020 Aug 24. PMID: 32864600.


Рецензия

Для цитирования:


Сокологорский С.В., Овечкин А.М., Хапов И.В., Политов М.Е., Буланова Е.Л. Факторы риска и методы прогнозирования клинического исхода COVID-19 (обзор). Общая реаниматология. 2022;18(1):31-38. https://doi.org/10.15360/1813-9779-2022-1-31-38

For citation:


Sokologorskiy S.V., Ovechkin A.M., Khapov I.V., Politov M.E., Bulanova E.L. Risk Factors of Severe Disease and Methods for Clinical Outcome Prediction in Patients with COVID-19 (Review). General Reanimatology. 2022;18(1):31-38. https://doi.org/10.15360/1813-9779-2022-1-31-38

Просмотров: 430


Creative Commons License
Контент доступен под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 1813-9779 (Print)
ISSN 2411-7110 (Online)